What drives assassination attempts
… plus curiosities from the Copa America, the National Portrait Gallery, and more.
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Thank you for reading our award-winning work as we continue our mission of covering underreported multimedia stories from around the world.
Without further ado, here’s what’s on deck this week:
👮 A breakdown of Trump’s attempted assassination — and what factors drive assassinations
⚽ Argentina makes soccer history
🌳 The word for when trees hold hands
But first, here’s a closer look at what’s been going on around the world lately:
1/8,000th of a second — The speed at which the camera of New York Times photographer Doug Mills was snapping to capture this remarkable photo of what could be the bullet used in the assassination attempt of former U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday. Scroll down to the cover story for a deeper dive on this developing story.
“Most cameras used to capture images of bullets in flight are using extremely high speed specialty cameras not normally utilized for regular photography, so catching a bullet on a side trajectory as seen in that photo would be a one in a million shot and nearly impossible to catch even if one knew the bullet was coming,” Michael Harrigan, a retired FBI special agent, told the Times on Saturday.
16 — The number of Copa America victories secured by Argentina after a masterful 1- 0 win against Colombia Sunday, making Argentina the country with the most Copa America victories of any league. Their win marks the team’s third straight major title, which also includes the 2021 Copa America and the 2022 World Cup.
179 — The approximate age in years of a rare daguerreotype of the former U.S. First Lady Dolley Madison that surfaced this year at a Sotheby’s auction. Acquired by the National Portrait Gallery in Washington, DC, in June, it’s believed to be the very first photograph of a U.S. first lady.
44 — The number of countries that have held national elections this year so far. By the end of 2024, over half the world’s population spread across 80+ countries will vote for their future leaders.
Which country is next to hold elections? Venezuela, on July 28. President Nicolás Maduro is up for reelection, with opposition leader María Corina Machado currently barred from running for office due to alleged corruption and for backing international sanctions against the country. Here’s a running list of the remaining elections occurring this year worldwide.
September 1 — Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan
September 7 — Presidential elections in Algeria
September 10 — Parliamentary elections in Jordan
September 15 — Presidential elections in Romania
October 6 — Presidential elections in Tunisia
October 9 — Presidential and Parliamentary elections in Mozambique
October 13 — Legislative elections in Lithuania
October 20 — Presidential elections in Moldova (Plus a referendum to amend the country’s constitution)
October 20 — Regional elections in Iraq
October 26 — Parliamentary elections in Georgia
October 27 — General elections in Uruguay
October — Legislative elections in Chad (with specific date TBD)
November 5 — Presidential elections in the United States
November 24 — Presidential elections in Guinea Bissau
November 24 — Presidential elections in Romania
November 27 — General elections in Namibia
December 1 — Parliamentary elections in Romania
December 7 — General elections in Ghana
December 22 — Presidential elections in South Sudan
December — Presidential elections in Croatia (with specific date TBD)
And now onto the main course — On Saturday at a Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump rally, Trump was mere centimeters away from becoming the victim of an assassination. The former Republican president survived with but a knick in his ear, after 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks pulled the trigger on his AR-15 style rifle from a rooftop perch roughly 135 meters away. Matthew Crooks ended up killing one rally attendee and severely injuring two others.
How did a novice marksman get so close to killing the former president despite being clocked by rally attendees, and despite layers of security by local law enforcement and the Secret Service? Those questions are the basis of an ongoing FBI investigation. (We’ll keep an eye on it for you and provide updates as they come.)
In the meantime, here’s what we know from experts about the causes and impacts of presidential assassinations throughout history — and what it says about what lays ahead as presidential elections approach.
Perpetrators of assassinations don’t have many unifying characteristics. A 1997 study conducted by the Secret Service found there was no single indicator that a person might seek to kill a political figure. The one caveat is that two-thirds of the attackers analyzed were described as “social isolates.”
A lone-wolf attacker like Crooks is rare. Most political assassinations around the world and throughout history have been carried out by violent groups, ruling political elites, or proxies. Experts say this is due to many extremist groups considering assassinations as an effective tool, “and that one of the major obstacles for democratization is the vulnerability of political opposition,” according to reports by the Combating Terrorism Center.
Today’s Secret Service is overworked and understaffed. Bill Gage, who is a senior security consultant and a former Secret Service agent under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told NPR this week there is “a law enforcement recruiting crisis in the country”, and the “mission profile has been expanding and expanding every year” given that there are more living presidents and other political protectees in the U.S. than ever before.
Attacks of this nature have risen since the 1970s. This rise is in lock step with the growth of extremist and oppressive regimes that are open to using violent means to secure power.
A formula for assassinations: Political fragmentation + “politically deprived” groups = decline in political legitimacy —> more assassination attempts. An analysis by the Combatting Terrorism Center of 758 attacks by 920 perpetrators that resulted in the death of 954 individuals from 1946 to 2013 found that a chain of events centered on political frustrations and social unrest usually occurs in the lead-up to assassination attempts. According to the CTC, assassinations are more likely to occur in countries with strong polarization, citizens who do not feel properly represented by elected officials, and a lack of a unified political ethos.
So, how do we prevent assassinations from occurring at all? These studies and political security experts point to a potential salve for these types of attacks: Governments need to set the stage for political processes to thrive. (i.e. Let the people. vote! And let those votes matter.) Governments shouldn’t restrict political participation, but rather let their people vote and directly attend to overarching political grievances their citizens point out. Easier said than done? Sure. But it’s a lot better than presidential candidates nearly being killed on the campaign trail.
On Thursday, July 18 — Tour de France cyclists compete in the 18th stage of the tournament in the Barcelonnette Valley of the southern French Alps. Among the tournaments best sprinters so far is Biniam Girmay, who is the first African-born cyclist to compete. The 24-year-old, Eritrea-born athlete became the Tour de France’s first African stage winner when he crossed the finish line on June 30 in Stage 3 in Bologna, Italy. He proceeded to win two more stages and clinch the coveted green jersey’s top spot 13 more times.
Also on Thursday, July 18 — The U.S. Republican National Convention in Milwaukee ends. This day will be a much lighter fare than previous days, with a slate of book signings, film screenings, and a scheduled salute to pro-Israel elected officials.
On Sunday, July 21 — A team of graduate-level and early-career climate scientists head to Texas to study sediment cores shipped from the Southern Ocean and Greenland. These core repositories will be used to better understand how both of Earth’s Polar regions are responding to climate change. Their goal is to prepare the group for eventual expeditions to Greenland and the Antarctic, and also collect research that inspires policymakers to take action to protect the Arctic and Antarctic regions from the impacts of climate change.
This month — Spotify is releasing a new feature. Users will be able to post comments on their favorite podcast pages in the app in a move that social media experts guess is the app’s attempt to compete with YouTube. The comments feature started rolling out earlier this month. What do you think? Is the feature a value-add?
Have you ever come across two tree branches that have intertwined and started growing together? There’s a term for that — inosculation.
It refers to the phenomenon of tree trunks, branches, or roots from separate trees growing together. Inosculation comes from Latin roots and roughly translates to “to kiss inward/into/against.”
I find the concept a touching metaphor for how biological beings, from plants to humans, can become fused and start to grow as one — whether it’s a tree or a life partner or friend.
— Ben
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Until next week,
Kelly at Frame